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Texas Tech vs Baylor Prediction
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Texas Tech vs Baylor Prediction

by AJ LeivaMarch 7, 2021

Game Details

  • Venue: Ferrell Center
  • Location: Waco, Texas
  • Date: Sunday, March 7, 2021
  • Time: 4:00 p.m. (ET)
  • TV: ESPN

Odds

  • Spread: Baylor -8
  • Moneyline: TBD
  • Over/Under: 140.5

The No. 18 Texas Tech Red Raiders will make the trip to Waco to face off in a Big 12 matchup against the No. 3 Baylor Bears. Both of these teams will make the March Madness tournament from a crowded Big 12 conference that features plenty of talented teams.

These teams played earlier this season with Baylor taking the win in a 68-60 game. Baylor came into the previous match-up as 4 point favorites. This time around the home-court advantage has bumped them up to 8 point favorites.

Texas Tech has won their last three games both straight up and against the spread. The Red Raiders are 9-7 SU in Big 12 Conference play with a 5-11 record ATS. The total has hit in four of the last five. Against Baylor, Texas Tech has lost five of the last six matchups straight up and is 2-4 against the spread.

Baylor is 12-1 straight up in Big 12 conference play this season. Despite their impressive conference record, Baylor is just 6-7 against the spread. Vegas has a lot of confidence in the Bears and while they may not cover as much as bettors would hope Baylor does close out games well. The total has gone OVER in eight of their last nine games.

The Bears are 20 and 1 this season earning them the No. 3 ranking. Their lone loss of the year came against Kansas on the road late last month. They are a perfect 10-0 at home this season. Yet, they have failed to cover in four of their last five home games. The total has gone OVER in all five contests.

Betting Analysis of Texas Tech

  • SU: 17-8
  • ATS: 10-15
  • SU – Home: 12-4
  • SU – Away: 5-4
  • O/U: 11-14

Texas Tech put up 81 points in Thursday’s beatdown of Iowa State at home. Junior guard Mac McClung led the team with 20 points for the Red Raiders. On the season McClung leads the team in scoring, averaging 16.4 points per game while shooting 42.7% from the field and 33.6% from three-point range. Terrence Shannon plays a big role as well averaging 12.5 points per game.

Texas Tech has averaged a total of 73.3 points and 35.5 rebounds a game this season. It is shooting 44.4% from the field and 34% from outside the three-point line.
Defensively, the Red Raiders have not allowed more than 59 points in each of their last three games. The team’s points-allowed average this season stands at 62.3.

Betting Analysis of Baylor Bears

  • SU: 20-1
  • ATS: 14-7
  • SU – Home: 12-0
  • SU – Away: 8-1
  • O/U: 12-9

Baylor has already secured the Big 12 regular-season title and the No. 1 seed for the upcoming conference tournament. The main motivation for Sunday is to stay perfect at home.
Jared Butler was on fire scoring 22 points in Thursday’s nine-point win at home over Oklahoma State.

This surpassed the junior guard’s team-high 17.1-point scoring average this season. He is shooting 48.7% from the field and 44.3% from three-point range.

The Bears have four different players scoring at least 10 PPG as part of the team’s 85.2-point scoring average this season. The Bears are shooting 49.6% from the field with a shooting percentage of 42.0 from outside the three-point line.

Baylor has been just as impressive on defense this season with a points-allowed average of 65.2. However, it has allowed 70 points or more in five of its last six games.

Prediction for Texas Tech vs Baylor (3/7/2021)

Texas Tech can continue building momentum for the March Madness tournament with a big win on the road. Baylor can easily fall asleep at the wheel while they are dreaming about a big tournament run. If Baylor is awake for this game they should win this straight up but in a tight match.

I feel most confident about the over in this game. Both these teams can put numbers on the board.

The Play: Texas Tech +8, Over 140.5

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About The Author
AJ Leiva