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Nadal Crashes Out of US Open, Kyrgios Favorite
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Nadal Crashes Out of US Open, Kyrgios Favorite

by Bren GraySeptember 6, 2022

A dramatic evening’s play has concluded at the US Open 2022, and the men’s quarter-finalists are all set.

Home favorite Frances Tiafoe did the rest of the draw a huge favor by knocking out 22-time Grand Slam winner Rafael Nadal, blowing the 2022 US Open draw wide open in the process, while world No.1 Daniil Medvedev also exited the tournament in the Round of 16 at the hand of Nick Kyrgios.

We look at how these matches unfolded, and what the outright odds are now for the men’s US Open 2022 draw.

Tiafoe Scores Biggest Win of Career Over Nadal

Heading into their Center Court match up last night, Frances Tiafoe was the overwhelming underdog against Rafael Nadal.

The American had never beaten one of the Big Three, and was seeded No.22, compared to Nadal’s No.2 seeding.

And yet, after an excellent junior career and years of expectation, France Tiafoe finally made good on his potential and produced the performance of his career so far. Coming out firing, Tiafoe grabbed the first set 6-4, taking one break of serve to clinch it. A bizarre nine-minute break ensued for Nadal to get his wrists taped, which somewhat threw Tiafoe off his rhythm, as he dropped the second set 6-4.

However, at a time when many opponents would simply be overwhelmed by Nadal’s tenacity and competitive spirit, Tiafoe dug deep and reeled off consecutive sets, 6-4 and 6-3, winning the match in three hours and thirty four minutes.

The win sends Tiafoe through to play Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals, who scored an impressive 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 win over Cam Norrie on Sunday night.

Kyrgios Sends Medvedev Packing Again

Earlier, Nick Kyrgios had dispatched Daniil Medvedev 7-6(11), 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 in a little under three hours, to extend his head to head to 4-1 over the Russian.

The match was a clinic of high-quality tennis, as Kyrgios hit 53 winners to 38 unforced errors, while Medvedev struck 49 winners and only 19 unforced errors. Both men served strong, with 21 aces to Kyrgios and 22 aces to Medvedev. The difference, as it often does, came down to break points, with Kyrgios capitalizing on five of his seven opportunities to break the Russian’s serve, while Medvedev could only take advantage 38% of the time, breaking Kyrgios’s serve two less times.

The win means that both the No.1 and No.2 seeds of the US Open have exited the tournament before the quarterfinals, and the highest remaining seed is Carlos Alcaraz, at No.3.

No.23 Seed Leads the Odds Ahead of Quarterfinals

It’s not often that heading into the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam, the 23rd seed leads the outright odds at the bookies to win the tournament.

However, heading into this evening’s men’s quarterfinals, that’s exactly the case, as Nick Kyrgios is now the favorite to win the title. Here’s a look at how the bookies are calling the remaining eight:

  • Nick Kyrgios +170
  • Carlos Alcaraz +220
  • Jannik Sinner +550
  • Casper Ruud +1200
  • Matteo Berrettini +1200
  • Frances Tiafoe +1200
  • Andrey Rublev +1400
  • Karen Khachanov +2800

 

Clearly, the bookmakers believe this one is going to be out of Nick Kyrgios and Carlos Alcaraz, with the two neck and neck on +170 and +220 respectively to win the US Open 2022.

The Path to Victory—and World No.1

There’s every chance that we could see a Kyrgios vs. Alcaraz final, with the two favorites positioned in opposite halves of the draw.

Tonight, the top half of the draw will play out, with Nick Kyrgios meeting Karen Khachanov and Casper Ruud meeting Matteo Berrettini. Kyrgios is a -403 favorite to progress, while Ruud and Berrettini is almost a coin flip, with Ruud paying -104 and Berrettini -116. If it goes according to seeding, then Kyrgios and Ruud will play for a spot in the US Open final.

Tomorrow night, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz square off in the bottom half of the draw for a spot in the semifinals. The winner will play either Andrey Rublev or Frances Tiafoe. Odds have this one looking like Alcaraz will move past Sinner as a -188 favorite, while Tiafoe’s steam is expected to run out as Rublev is favored -127 in that match. The winner between a potential Alcaraz vs. Rublev match would head into the US Open final, and potentially play Ruud or Kyrgios, depending on results.

For two men, it’s not just the US Open trophy and a first Grand Slam on the line. Right now, Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud both still have a chance of clinching the world No.1 spot in the ATP rankings, should they make the US Open final. Either player will become world No.1 if they make the final, and the other does not—if they both make the final, the winner will walk away No.1.

A lot is on the line: If Alcaraz becomes No.1, he will be the youngest ever to do so; if Ruud does, he will be the first ever Norwegian.

Or, Kyrgios may spoil the party for everyone.


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About The Author
Bren Gray