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Italy vs Spain Prediction
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Italy vs Spain Prediction

by Corey GheeJuly 5, 2021

Italy vs Spain prediction – the two European giants will collide for a spot in the Euro 2020 Final this Tuesday!

HISTORY: The all-time series is deadlocked with both nations tallying 11 wins. Two of the previous four matches have drawn, and this is the fourth straight European tournament these two teams will collide in. Italy defeated Spain in the round of 16 at Euro 2016, but the Spaniards humiliated Italia in the Euro 2012 Final, 4-0.

Spain: Tale of the Tape

  • Form: D-D-W-W-W
  • Lineup: Simon; Azpilicueta, Laporte, Torres, Alba; Koke, Busquets, Pedri; Torres, Morata, Olmo

After opening the tournament with a pair of draws to Sweden and Poland, Spain has found their stride at the right time. They exploded for a 5-0 victory over Slovakia to advance to the round of 16, where they’d defeat Croatia in extra time 5-3. Spain and Switzerland would go to penalties, where the Spaniards would advance 3-1.

Luis Enrique will line up in a 4-3-3 formation with Semifinal hero Unai Simon between the sticks. The Bilbao keeper will be covered by the centre back pairing of Man City’s Aymeric Laporte and Villareal’s Pau Torres. Barcelona’s Jordi Alba will make his 78th cap, while Chelsea’s Cesar Azpilicueta will make his 30th after scoring his first international goal in the win over Croatia.

Spain’s midfield has been masterful through five contests. Sergio Busquets will have his hands full with the Italia attack, but he still remains one of the best holding midfielders in the world. Atheltico’s Koke will make his 56th cap, while Enrique will start Pedri , Busquets, Pedri

The front line struggled to capitalize during the first two contests, but they’ve grown potent over these last three matches. Alvaro Morata has put the Sweden game behind him, and made things right with the winning score over Croatia in extra time. Man City’s Ferran Torres and Leipzig’s Dani Olmo will line up wide, with Thiago and Gerald Moreno likely to feature as well.

Italy: Tale of the Tape

  • Form: W-W-W-W-W
  • Lineup: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bonucci, Chiellini, Emerson; Barella, Jorginho, Verratti; Chiesa, Immobile, Insigne

After uncharacteristically missing the 2018 World Cup, Italy opened the tournament with a dominating 3-0 over Turkey, then followed it up with an identical pounding of Switzerland. Wales played them tough, but the Italians prevailed with 1-0 win and cruised to a Group A victory. They escaped an upset in the quarterfinal, as Austria took them to extra time and nearly ended their summer. Italy managed to gain an early two-goal lead over Belgium and didn’t look back, winning 2-1 to advance to the final four.

The longtime center-back pairing of Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci continues to hold fort. Two-thirds of the infamous Italy Wall, Chiellini and Bonucci will bring brute and leadership to a young, talented squad. The Juventus pairing has over 250 caps combined. Roma’s Leonardo Spinazzola was having a phenomenal tournament but he’s going to miss the contest with an injury.

Italy vs Spain Chiellini and Bonucci

It will be a bit of a blow to the talented backline as Spinazzola was named Man of the Match twice this for his defensive mastery and offensive runs against Turkey and Austria. Chelsea’s Emerson will replace him on the outside and he’ll be joined by Napoli’s Giovanni Di Lorenzo.

Gigi Donnarumma will look to keep the sheet clean in 33rd cap. Italy continues to win at the midfield. Marco Verrati be joined by Chelsea’s Jorginho and Inter’s Nicolo Barella. Jorginho is coming off of magical Champions’ winning campaign, and the deep-lying playmaker served as the glue for Thomas Tuchel’s turnaround at Chelsea this season.

Barella helped Inter capture the Seria A crown in his first year with the club, and he netted the opening score against Belgium. The pairing of Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne has yielded positive results. Immobile is coming off of another stellar campaign with Lazio, netting 25 goals and garnering another trip to Europa League.

Insigne stunning strike would prove to be the winning goal over Belgium. Both Serie A studs found the back of the net in the win over Turkey, and they will look to give a vulnerable Spanish backline some trouble.

Juventus’ Federico Chiesa will start alongside the talented duo after his heroics in the 2-1 win over Austria, while Sassuolo’s Domenico Berardi or Torino’s Andrea Belotti could feature as second half supersubs.

Players to Watch

Alvaro Morata

Morata is going to have to bring his A-game. Chances have come at a premium throughout the tournament, but Morata has underwhelmed at the top of the formation. He’s talented, but he has to capitalize on opportunities in this high stakes battle.

Gigi Donnarumma

The Italians have not missed a beat transitioning from Gigi Buffon to Gigi Donnarumma, and the latter has really come into his own this summer. This is going to be a defensive match that could even come down to penalties. Look for Donnarumma to keep things going and aim for his fourth clean sheet this summer.

Italy vs Spain Prediction & Pick

Spain has been explosive yet inconsistent this summer, and with a spot in the Euro 2020 Final on the line, we want to back Italy here. Spinnazzola’s absence will be felt, but Italia should win all three battles tonite. Their front line should be able to generate against a Spanish back four that’s conceded four goals in the past two games.

Bet on Italy to win, and both teams to score.

Prediction: ITA 2 SPA 1

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About The Author
Corey Ghee
Avid sports writer and bettor. VCU Alum. Dodgers Fan. Cameron Crazy. Longhorn Football. James Harden Advocate. 4x Fantasy Football Champion. I love the game of basketball but I serve a diverse perspective of sports, from court to field to pitch to diamond to ice to clay. There’s always a decision, and a profit to be made. I’m here to help and learn along the way. Spreads, lines, totals, let’s win together.