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Week 5 in the NFL and new faces will be behind center. Which QB has the best chance ATS?
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Week 5 in the NFL and new faces will be behind center. Which QB has the best chance ATS?

by Thomas JuryOctober 7, 2022

Steelers at Buffalo (14) Kenny Pickett looks to get his first start in week five, and it comes at no easy task. Buffalo Bills have one of, if not the best, defenses in the NFL. Led by QB Josh Allan, the Bills are 14-point favorites. Not only is that the largest spread of the season, 1969 was the last time the Steelers were that big of underdogs. Pickett looks to prove naysayers wrong and show why he deserves the starting spot. Pickett went 10/13 120 yards with 2 TD and 3 ints in his debut in relief for Mitch Trabisky.

Lions at Patriots (-3.5) With the latest injury report coming out on QB Matt Jones, it’s probable that Rookie QB Bailey Zappe will get the start for the Patriots. Zappe went 10/15 99 yard with 1 TD after starting QB Mac Jones went down with a high ankle sprain. With Jones nursing his ankle, Zappe has been getting most of the reps with the first-team offense. Don’t count out Dan Campell and his hearty Lions. Lions are 11-2 ATS as underdogs, including covering the last six road games. However, 0-9-1 outright under Dan Campell

Dolphins at Jets (-3.5) If you are a fan of the Dolphins, there is no surprise that Tua Tagatioloa is out with a concussion. Teddy Bridgewater is looking to get the first start of the season but is no rookie. If there is one thing that Teddy does well, it’s cover. He is 42-21 (5-2 as road favorites) ATS in his career. Bridgewater looks to move the Dolphins to 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.

Cowboys at Rams (-5.5) Cooper Rush has a chance to join only five other quarterbacks to start their careers off 5-0 ATS and outright. He would be included on a list of names with Kurt Warner, Mike Kruczek, Big Ben Rothlisberger, Kyle Allen, and the magic man himself, Patrick Mahomes. Rush will have a long night trying to avoid Sean McVay’s defense scheme led by Aaron Donald. McVay is 16-9 ATS after being handed a loss.

Best Chance for QB Success

In the NFL today, a quarterback’s best chance of success depends on the situation in which he is drafted in. Every year we see quarterbacks taken in the first round just to find themselves in a backup role or out of the league. Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen, to name a few, both found themselves in backup roles because they were put into bad situations. Both saw multiple head coaches and offensive coordinators in their first couple of years.

Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Patrick Mahomes all sat their first year before eventually becoming the starting quarterbacks. I know it’s early on some of these players, but that list is full of future Hall of Famers. Letting the rookie sit behind an experienced quarterback gives the young quarterback the biggest key for success in his career. Pickett may be a rookie coming into week 5. However, he is the most NFL “ready now” quarterback out of the 2022 NFL draft. Look to see him start to merge into the spotlight on come Sunday.


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About The Author
Thomas Jury