The Most Overrated NFL Teams
There are all kinds of analysts out there telling you which NFL teams should get your futures bets. Best bets to go over their win totals, win their division, and ultimately compete for a Super Bowl.
We’re going the other way. These are the NFL teams that will not win their division in spite of favorable betting odds, or they will ultimately be a disappointing bet as a future Super Bowl winner.
These are the bets on which some bettors are bullish, but you should definitely avoid.
Arizona Cardinals (+350 to win NFC West)
The loss of DeAndre Hopkins for six weeks is going to hurt more than many people think, and there will be no hot start to save the Cardinals this season.
When the Cardinals were 7-0 last season, their Real Quarterback Rating, as tabulated by the stat people at Cold, Hard Football Facts, was fifth in the NFL. By the end of the season they ranked 13th, largely because of the injuries to Hopkins.
Dallas Cowboys (+140 to win NFC East)
The Cowboys are the favorites to repeat as NFC East champions, but they are primed for major regression. Thanks to 34 takeaways the Cowboys defense looked good on paper. In reality they were just average.
Turnovers always return to the mean, so this defense is in for a rough reality check. And with no Tyron Smith at left tackle, or Amari Cooper at wide receiver, so is the offense.
This team should not be favorites to win their division.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+750 Super Bowl champions)
Yes, it’s been proven foolish time and time again to bet against Tom Brady on any of the NFL teams, but the season hasn’t even started and he already looks and sounds exhausted by football.
Add in the devastating injuries that have besieged the interior of their offensive line, and this team is in trouble.
Last season the Bucs were sixth on Cold, Hard Football Facts’ Offensive Hog Index, and the dropoff with that group this year will be enough to keep Tampa from winning the NFC.
Denver Broncos (+260 to win AFC West)
It’s hard to bet on the Broncos at +260 to win the AFC West when the Los Angeles Chargers are only +250 to win the division.
L.A. has a much better offense, led by the rising Justin Herbert. They also added much better pieces to their defense, with the addition of J.C. Jackson and Khalil Mack. Denver will be better this year, but it’s absurd to put them neck-and-neck with the Chargers.
Cleveland Browns (+275 to make Wild Card)
Jacoby Brissett is not going to keep Cleveland in the Wild Card nearly long enough to make a difference, and the predicted third place team in the AFC North has next to no chance of making the playoffs.
The last time Brisset was a primary starter was in 2019 with the Colts, and Cold, Hard Football Facts ranked them 21st in Offensive Passer Rating that year.
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