Panthers vs Patriots Prediction & NFL Odds for Week 9
- Panthers’ receivers have to be better.
- Can Mac Jones be consistent over four quarters of football?
- Matt Rhule first time coaching against Bill Belichick
This game is bound to be a thriller. So far this season, these teams have been very similar to each other, losing some games that they should have won and winning some that maybe they shouldn’t have.
When this game popped up on the schedule at the beginning of the season, many thought this would be Cam Newton’s revenge game, and man, what a treat that would have been. But the Patriots went the other route with a rookie signal-caller, and he has looked pretty good this season.
At this point, on the cusp of Week 9, Jones is the runner-up behind Ja’marr Chase in the offensive rookie of the year sweepstakes and rightfully so. He has put up some excellent numbers. He currently sits eighth in the NFL with 1,997 yards passing and has only thrown six interceptions, which is good for a guy eight games into his career.
Now on the home side of the ball, Carolina has been extremely up and down all season. Sam Darnold and the offence looked great through the first three weeks, putting up over 19 points in all those contests. But since that Thursday nighter in Texas week three, this team has just not looked the same.
Christian McCaffrey is likely the reason why, after his injury, Darnold lost the best check-down option a quarterback can have—leading to some ill-advised decisions and seven interceptions over his last five games.
Betting Odds & Lines for This Game
- Spread: NE -3.5 (-110) | CAR +3.5 (-110)
- MoneyLine: NE (-180) | CAR (+152)
- Total: 41.0 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
- All odds listed are courtesy of (PointsBet | Caesars | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Panthers vs Patriots Prediction: Spread
When looking at this spread, it’s hard for me not to take the home team. With the addition of Stephon Gilmore to this already lethal defence the Panthers have, I don’t see Patriots wideouts getting too much separation, especially with Donte Jackson on the other side.
Last week reminded a lot of people why Carolina had a 3-0 start: their pass rush is really good when it’s firing on all cylinders. Matt Ryan was sacked three times last week and hit nine times in the pocket. If the Panthers can match that kind of production against an in-experienced quarterback, it could make Jones a little weary in the pocket.
As for why I wouldn’t take the Patriots, they have a trend of keeping games close this season when they aren’t playing the Jets. So far, half their games have been decided by three points or less, making this look like a prime candidate for another close one.
- Free Prediction: CAR +3.5
Panthers vs Patriots Prediction: MoneyLine
This game will be won in the Trenches. This year, pressuring the quarterback has been at the forefront of their game plan in all of the Panther’s wins this year. So far this season, the Patriots line has allowed 15 sacks in 8 games which is pretty good protection, less than two sacks per game on average.
The Carolina pass rush led by Haason Reddick and Brian Burns can be one of the best in the game when working. This season they rank fourth in sacks with 21 and are eighth in the league in pressure percentage.
So if the Patriots can’t adequately protect Jones, they could be in for a rough day. This game will be close, but I like the Panthers in the Moneyline, considering the value and the fact these teams are very similar.
- Free Prediction: CAR (+152)
Panthers vs Patriots Prediction: Total
This is interesting. The only total under this game coming into this week is the Bears vs Steelers, so that goes to show that oddsmakers believe this will be a low-scoring defensive battle. Both secondaries have been pretty dominant this season, with both teams ranking in the top 10 in opposing QBR and completion percentage. This leads me to believe that Chuba Hubbard or Christian McCaffrey, and Damien Harris will all get plenty of carries.
Matt Judon, better known as ‘red sleeves’, is a menace and could flip this game upside down for the Patriots. So far this season, there is no question that he has been the unsung hero of this defence, racking up eight sacks, nine tackles for loss and 14 hits on the quarterback.
Chuba Hubbard speaks to the media on Thursday https://t.co/ZQXWe3AEzG
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) November 4, 2021
Although just one player doesn’t make or break a game, Judon very well can, considering Carolina’s O-line has been easily the weakest part of the offence, ranking 28th in the NFL.
Another thing to consider when betting the total is how much the Panther’s receivers have dropped balls over the last couple of weeks, forcing the Panthers into many field goals instead of touchdowns in the red zone. Most notably, DJ Moore’s drop in the end zone last week resulted in three points.
In my opinion, this game will be a close defensive battle, but I can still see each team getting over 20 points. Probably not by much. This will be a sweat-it-out kind of bet.
- Free Prediction: Over 41.0
Bet on This NFL Game
Check out this post for a full list of our weekly NFL predictions.
- Race to 15 points – New England Patriots (-166)
Carolina has been notorious for starting slow this season, and the Patriots will have a good game script for their first 15 plays. I can see them taking an early lead, 14 would be more ideal, but 15 is still plausible.
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