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NFL Divisional Odds
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NFL Divisional Odds

by Ryan GhodsianJuly 14, 2021

Heading into training camp of the 2021 NFL Season, a lot of uncertainty has occurred amongst the landscape of the NFL. Below are the odds for each team to win their division for the upcoming season:

NFL Divisional Odds

AFC East (Buffalo Bills -151, Miami +300, New England +350, New York Jets +2000)

The AFC East is a division that took the most dramatic turn last season. The biggest domino to fall was the New England Patriots. The class of the division, and frankly the entire AFC for almost two decades, lost arguably the best quarterback of all time in Tom Brady. To make matters worse, many key contributors to their defense opted out due to COVID.

Going into this year, most, if not all of the guys on their defense coincided with a large number of free agents coming into Foxborough. Their draft selection of quarterback Mac Jones, is also an interesting variable to factor in this season especially if he takes over Cam Newton’s job. New England will have a puncher’s chance at regaining their crown.

The Miami Dolphins were a team that competed extremely hard. Led by coach Brian Flores, they are led by their swarming defense. I see them being another factor once again this season. 

The big question for Miami is the development of their young quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. If he can make a big jump like Josh Allen did in Buffalo, I would not be surprised at all if the Dolphins win the division. 

Lastly, it is no surprise that the New York Jets have the worst odds of winning the division. With a rookie quarterback and first-time head coach, there is going to be a huge learning curve. For the Jets, the main priority is to develop Zach Wilson and create a culture/identity for the future.

AFC North (Baltimore Ravens +118, Cleveland Browns +156, Pittsburgh Steelers +335, Cincinnati Bengals +2500)

The AFC North is arguably one of the most improved divisions last year. Considering The Pittsburgh Steelers entered last postseason as the 1st seed in the AFC, it is somewhat surprising that they have the second-worst odds to win the division.

Nonetheless, they did have a very bad end to their season with the defeat to the Cleveland Browns, who is my pick to win the AFC North. With an improving young quarterback in Baker Mayfield, a dynamic rushing attack, and a swarming defense I see them building off last year’s magical run.

The Baltimore Ravens with Lamar Jackson surprisingly are the oddsmakers’ favorites out of the pack. Yes, they do have arguably the best dual-threat quarterback in the game, which is a reason in itself to have hope. With that being said, I like the Browns roster overall more than I do compare to the Ravens. In order to prove that they are the best team in the division, I believe Lamar Jackson is going to have to take a step forward in the passing game. If not, teams will continue to cheat and play for the run. 

Something that is no shock here is the Bengals having the worst odds to win The AFC North. With young franchise quarterback, Joe Burrow, coming off season-ending ACL surgery, it will be interesting to watch how confident he will be in that knee especially with a poor offensive line.

AFC South (Tennessee Titans +105, Indianapolis Colts +105, Jacksonville Jaguars +900, Houston Texans +2150) 

With All-Pro running back Derrick Henry and newly acquired Julio Jones, the Tennessee Titans in my mind should be the runaway favorites in the division. It is surprising in my opinion that the Colts hold the same odds.

Yes, Frank Reich is an excellent coach and they do have an underrated defense. The biggest elephant in the room however is newly acquired quarterback Carson Wentz.

Last we saw him, he was playing some of the worst football in his career with the Eagles. In order for Wentz to revitalize his career, Reich is going to have to push all the right buttons and hope to see even a glimpse of what he was in 2017.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are looking to develop a winning culture with the number one overall pick Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, and first-year head coach Urban Meyer. While their fans have a reason for optimism, it is still way too early for Duval county to be thinking of the playoffs. For them, it is about Lawrence getting used to the level of competition in the NFL and establishing a winning culture.

The only team looking worse than the Jaguars right now, are the Houston Texans who could easily become the worst team in all of football this year; especially with the situation surrounding quarterback Deshaun Watson. Their team is a complete mess and their fans do not have any reason to believe with the lack of talent on the roster. 

AFC West (Kansas City Chiefs -293, Denver Broncos +450, Los Angeles Chargers +600, Las Vegas Raiders +1600)

The AFC West is arguably one of the easiest divisions to pick this year. As long as Patrick Mahomes is at the helm for the Kansas City Chiefs, I do not see anyone coming in their way for years to come. 

What is surprising about these odds however is that The Denver Broncos hold the second-best chance to win over the Raiders and Chargers. The only logical explanation is that the oddsmakers are anticipating the arrival of Aaron Rodgers who is disgruntled at the moment in Green Bay. If they do indeed get their hands on Rodgers, the Broncos could surely challenge the Chiefs at the top of the division. 

With that being said, I see them finishing last in the division without the star QB. 

Something that is surprising is that The Las Vegas Raiders have the worst odds to win the division this year. Yes, they were inconsistent last year but they were one of the few teams that gave the Chiefs problems last year as they handed Kansas City their first loss of the season. 

With a pro bowl caliber running back in Josh Jacobs, and a motivated Derek Carr, I see Vegas surprising some people this year.

The wild card in the division are The Los Angeles Chargers. Justin Herbert is arguably one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. If Herbert can build off an impressive rookie year, I see Los Angeles creeping up on some teams in the AFC.

NFC East (Dallas Cowboys +110, Washington Football Team +225, Philadelphia Eagles +450, New York Giants +450)

NFL Divisional Odds

As poor as the NFC East was last season, it is not far-fetched to argue that it is one of the hardest divisions to predict, especially going into this year.

Each team has a glaring question mark surrounding them. 

With the Dallas Cowboys, Dak Prescott is coming off major surgery. Not to mention, they did have a historically bad defense last year.

The Philadelphia Eagles are trying to usher in a new era with new head coach Nick Sirianni looking to develop Jalen Hurts as the team’s franchise quarterback. It will be interesting to see what their relationship looks like with both guys having minimal experience at their jobs.

The New York Giants surprisingly had a pretty decent defense but their quarterback play from Daniel Jones is still a huge question mark. With Saquan Barkley coming back, it should relieve some of the pressure.

Lastly, The Washington Football team who were the NFC East Champions last year are looking to lean on their defense once again to set the tone for their team. Their biggest issue is their quarterback play. Will it be veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick to take the reins or will they put their trust in Taylor Heinke, who had a decent playoff game against the Bucs last year. 

As unpredictable as this division is, I am going to have to go with the Washington Football Team due to the experience of coach Ron Rivera and their dominant defense.

NFC North (Green Bay Packers -157, Minnesota Vikings +275, Chicago Bears +400, Detroit Lions +2350)

With the potential departure of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, this division could instantly become wide open.

Despite Green Bay’s talented roster, I do not see them being able to overcome his amazing productivity on the field and the eventual emotional letdown the team will face. 

This brings me to The Chicago Bears who are my pick to win the division. I see rookie quarterback Justin Fields having immediate success with Matt Nagy calling the plays. Their defense will also be motivated as ever to perform especially with the upgrade offensively.

The Vikings look to build off an encouraging season where all-pro running back Dalvin Cook had a breakout year. Wide receiver Justin Jefferson also looks to be the real deal after his rookie season as well. The real question mark for the Vikings always will be the play of Kirk Cousins. If he cannot elevate his play, I do not see Minnesota having a chance of winning The NFC North.

Lastly, it is not a shock that the Detroit Lions have the worst odds of winning the division. Trading for a struggling quarterback in Jared Goff, I do not see the Lions have a good shot at all, especially with a new head coach coming in.

NFC South (Tampa Bay Buccaneers -165, New Orleans Saints +275, Carolina Panthers +725, Atlanta Falcons +800)

The NFC South is where the Lombardi trophy currently resides. The reigning defending Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, have brought back all 22 starters on both sides of the ball and have every reason to believe in success again this year. They almost look like a shoo-in to win the division. 

As far as The New Orleans Saints goes, Sean Payton looks to usher in a new signal-caller, after all-time great Drew Brees, announced his retirement after last season. His dynamic play calling and experience will be on full display as he tries to groom Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston. 

The Falcons and Panthers are two teams that are looking to find themselves. Atlanta will try to surprise people despite the loss of Julio Jones, and the Panthers will turn to newly acquired quarterback Sam Darnold to try to galvanize the team with Christian McCaffery coming back.

NFC West (San Francisco 49ers +180, Los Angeles Rams +187, Seattle Seahawks +277, Arizona Cardinals +550)

Over the last several years, The NFC West has proven to be one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL. This year is no different as one could confidently say that every single team has improved in the offseason. 

After an injury-plagued season, The San Francisco 49ers are finally getting healthy. Key contributors like Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Jimmy Goropollo, etc. are set to come back in time for training camp. 

The wild card for the team is dynamic young quarterback, Tray Lance, who they selected at number three overall in the draft. With all of his unique attributes, it will be interesting to see if/when coach Kyle Shannahan chooses to hand the reins to Lance.

Even if Lance does not play his rookie year, I still like the Niners to come out on top in the division due to their dominant defense and run game.

The Los Angeles Rams could be the most improved team which is scary to think about. They already have a great defense led by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. With the addition of Mathew Stafford, the Rams are going all in at a Super Bowl run.

If Stafford can limit the turnovers and throw the ball accurately for the team, I would not be shocked if they do indeed win the division.

The Arizona Cardinals are a scary team as well with the emergence of star quarterback Kyler Murrary. Entering his third season with All-Pro Wideout Deandre Hopkins by his side, the offense for sure is nothing to take lightly. With the addition of JJ Watt on the defensive side of the ball, the Cardinals could make a run sooner rather than later.

Lastly, let us not forget superstar Russell Wilson and The Seattle Seahawks. They always pose a threat especially with star wide receiver DK Metcalf, who proved why he is one of the best pass-catchers in the league last season in just his second year. The only thing holding them back could be their defense. Do not sleep on the Seahawks.

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About The Author
Ryan Ghodsian
Hello, my name is Ryan Ghodsian and I am a senior at the University of Miami from Los Angeles, California. I am a strongly motivated person who encourages others to be the best versions of themselves. It is extremely rewarding to collaborate with others and see the progress you are able to reach together. I enjoy the process of writing and am very open to constructive criticism in order to improve myself.