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Cowboys vs Patriots Prediction & NFL Odds for Week 6
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Cowboys vs Patriots Prediction & NFL Odds for Week 6

by Tom ZwillerOctober 14, 2021
  • Trevon Diggs will continue his interception streak by picking off Mac Jones.
  • Ezekiel Elliott will score a rushing touchdown.
  • Micah Parsons will record a sack on Mac Jones.

It was one year ago last week that Dak Prescott was injured against the New York Giants. One year later, Dak has had a successful surgery, signed a 4-year $160,000,000 deal, and led the Cowboys to 4-1.

The Cowboys are in firm control of the NFC West with a 2-0 divisional record. The next closest team is the Washington Football Team who has a 0-1 divisional record.

The New England Patriots are 2-3 with their rookie QB Mac Jones who is off to a rough start with a quarterback rating of 86.4. The Patriots trail the 4-1 Buffalo Bills who are fresh off of a victory over the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Patriots and Cowboys have played 13 times, with the Cowboys leading the all-time series 7-6. Dallas has lost the last six matchups in the series and the last four on the road. The last time these two teams played, the Patriots beat the Cowboys at home 13-9.

Betting Odds & Lines for This Game

Cowboys vs Patriots Prediction: Spread

While the Cowboys are a Week 1 Ryan Succop field goal away from having an undefeated record, the Cowboys are undefeated against the spread.
In their first matchup they were a 9 point underdog and covered losing by 2. The

Chargers were a 3 point favorite and the Cowboys beat the spread outright.
Dallas has been favored in its last three games, by 3.5, 4 and then 7. The Cowboys won those games by 20, 8 and 24.

Unlike the Cowboys, the Patriots are currently 2-3 in real life and against the spread.
Their losses have come against the Dolphins (favored by 3.5), the Saints (favored by 3) and the Texans (favored by 8). Their wins came against the New York Jets (favored by 6) and Tampa Bay (6.5 underdogs).

To me, the books are too low on the Cowboys while simultaneously being too high on the Patriots. I like Dallas here.

  • Free Prediction: The Dallas Cowboys will beat the spread.

Cowboys vs Patriots Prediction: MoneyLine

The Patriots boast a great passing defense, ranking top-5 in passing yards, passing attempts, and completions. Their main defensive weakness is their inability to defend the rush as they rank 15th in rushing yards.

That is sort of a problem given that the Cowboys are a top-tier rushing team as they rank second in rushing yards and seventh in rushing touchdowns. That is not to say the Cowboys have a bad passing attack, they rank 11th in passing yards despite ranking 23rd in passing attempts.

The Cowboys also boast a stout rushing defense, ranking 5th in rushing yards and touchdowns against. Luckily for the Patriots, the Cowboys are still weak against the pass, they have allowed 1555 yards on 208 attempts.

Much like the Patriots did against the Buccaneers, I expect them to pass the pass a fair amount, keeping the targets short to help account for a poor rushing attack.
However, I think that the Cowboys are just the better team overall.

  • Free Prediction: The Cowboys will beat the Patriots,

Cowboys vs Patriots Prediction: Total

With the total, these teams are like an unstoppable force meets an unstoppable object. The Total has been set to 50+ in every single Cowboys game and the Cowboys have hit the over every single time except for one (Chargers).

The Patriots meanwhile have never had a total set above 50 and been set below 40 once. When the spread is set in the 40s’ the Patriots are 0-4 and when it is set to below 40 the Pats are 1-0 (Texans).

In this instance of a force and an object, I think that the force beats the object. The Cowboys have an offense that I do not think the Patriots will be able to slow. While the Cowboys’ defense has improved from last season, I still think the Patriots will be able to put up points on Dallas.

  • Free Prediction: The Cowboys-Patriots game will hit the over on the total.

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About The Author
Tom Zwiller
Tom Zwiller is currently attending Holy Cross College where he is majoring in business analytics and minoring in Computer Science, Mathematics, and Theology. During high school, Tom played as a DT on his varsity football team and as a forward for his varsity high school hockey team. Tom loves all things sports, specifically the NFL, the NBA, and the NHL, as well as a good game of table tennis. Go Panthers!