Bills vs Chiefs Prediction & NFL Odds for Week 5
- The game will resemble last season’s AFC Championship.
- Zach Moss has to step up.
- The 2-2 Chiefs need this win at arrowhead.
When the Bills visit the Chiefs in Kansas City Sunday night, they will have more to worry about than just the Arrowhead crowd. They will need to pay close attention to that Patrick Mahomes guy.
Last week Mahomes got his 2-2 squad back on track with a big performance through the air against the Eagles, throwing for 278 yards, five touchdowns and a 131.0 QBR. The Bills have some solid secondary play from last week that they will hope can carry over to combat that air show.
Last week the Bills only allowed 87 Yards through the air and had four interceptions, holding their opponent to a 23.4 QBR. Now obviously, Mahomes is a little more seasoned than Texans starter Davis Mills, but nonetheless, a performance like that boosts the confidence of this bills squad.
Betting Odds & Lines for This Game
- Spread: BUF +3 (-115) | KC -3 (-105)
- MoneyLine: BUF (+126) | KC (-148)
- Total: 56.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)
- All odds listed are courtesy of (PointsBet | Caesars | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Bills vs Chiefs Prediction: Spread
This is the marquee matchup of the week and honestly the toughest to pick. On one side, you have a high-flying Chiefs Offence with Tyreke Hill and Travis Kelce. And on the other side, you have Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and an elite defense.
It is going to be a big one for both sides. One stat that really sticks out to me, though, is that the Bills own the highest-graded linebacker Matt Milano (90.4) and Saftey Micah Hyde (78.3) in the NFL. Those are massive accolades for a defense that seems underrated under the leadership of defensive mastermind Sean McDermott.
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 7, 2021
So sticking with that, I like the Bills getting three points in this one. I think if the Bills can do enough to stifle the Chiefs offensively, they can pull out a win.
- Free Prediction: BUF +3
Bills vs Chiefs Prediction: MoneyLine
Moneyline is a whole different beast. As for the heads-up pickem, I like the value the Chiefs offer.
Regardless of how good the Bills defense is, Mahomes is still himself, throwing for 14 touchdowns (1st), 77 first down throws (1st), and 83.6 Adjusted completion percentage (2nd), so the talent is still there.
Based on the fact that the Chiefs are home and it’s a primetime game, the Chiefs will pull this one out, but don’t count out the point spread Bills pick.
- Free Prediction: KC (-148)
Bills vs Chiefs Prediction: Total
What also makes this game unique is the Ability both quarterbacks have outside of the pocket. Last week Allen had six carries for 41 yards, including multiple throws on the run. On the other hand, Mahomes has always been extremely elusive and picks his spots to put his body on the line. Something Allen does as well.
Given both guys’ legs and the high flying ability of both offenses, the over is a safe bet in this one, provided there aren’t any big injuries.
- Free Prediction: Over 56.5
Bet on This NFL Game
Check out this post for a full list of our weekly NFL predictions.
- Team to score first Bills (+100)
I love the value of this pick, and it’s an easy one to parlay with the spread and over. I think if the Chiefs win the toss, they will defer considering they are the home team, and if the Bills win, they will elect to receive and get out to a fast start.
- Total touchdowns home team Over 3.5
Staying consistent with the rest of my prediction, this will be a high-scoring game, and the Chiefs should easily hit four touchdowns.
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