Taphorn’s Twelve Pack: CFB Week 3
This write-up will feature twelve weekly betting lines (The Twelve Pack). Six bets I like will be broken up into half units, full units, and double units. The additional six lines will be lines to stay away from. Each week I’ll also feature a special bonus bet from the little degenerate birdie that whispers ideas in my ear.
- Week 2 Record: 3-3. +0 units.
- Year to Date Record: 9-6. +3 units.
- Degenerate Little Birdie Record: 1-1
6 CFB Week 3Bets I Like:
1. Michigan State Spartans at Miami (FL) Hurricanes -6.5
Sparty has started off the 2021 season by matching their 2020-win total and Miami has limped their way to 1-1. However, their schedules have been vastly different. Miami’s start against Alabama and Appalachian State trumps a road game against a weak Northwestern team and Youngstown State. D’Eriq King gets going on offense and the defense slows down Kenneth Walker and the running game. Bet amount: 1 unit.
2. Virginia Tech Hokies +125 at West Virginia Mountaineers
The Hokies are 2-0 against the spread to start the year and are playing great on defense and special teams. The running game is there and if Burmeister can up the passing game efficiency the Hokies could be a threat in the ACC. West Virginia had a virtual scrimmage last week after losing at Maryland Week 1. Expect a couple turnovers from Virginia Tech and an outright win. Bet amount: ½ unit.
3. Maryland Terrapins -7.5 at Illinois Fighting Illini
Taulia Tagovailoa is starting to look like his brother playing quarterback and Illinois is making every quarterback they play look like Tua. Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong set career highs in yards and touchdowns a week ago and I can’t see the Illinois defense slowing the Terps down. Bet amount: 2 units.
4. Cincinnati Bearcats -3.5 at Indiana Hoosiers
This must be a game that Cincy has circled all off-season. The Bearcats want to make the CFP and have limited chances to prove they hold up against power five teams. Indiana struggled mightily against Iowa in Week 1, but Iowa is looking like they have one of the top defenses in the Big Ten. The Bearcats struggled in the first half a week ago before blowing the game open, this should be one to watch. Bet amount: ½ unit.
5. Alabama Crimson Tide -15 at Florida Gators
Bama didn’t look great against Mercer a week ago and Saban referenced poor focus during the week leading up to the game. There’s no time to lose focus going to The Swamp in front of 90k fans. Florida has won both games easily and backup quarterback Anthony Richardson looks like one of the most electric players in college football.
Unfortunately for Gators fans he pulled up on a sore hamstring after running for an 80-yard touchdown and Dan Mullen has committed to Emory Jones as the starter. Jones has made some poor decisions throwing the ball which won’t bode well against this stacked Crimson Tide defense. Bet amount: 2 units.
6. San Jose State Spartans -6.5 at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
The Spartans keep making appearances in this write up and I’m riding with them this week. UCLA’s defense picked on Hawaii in Week 0 and the Spartans bring a stout group with them as well. Nick Starkel needs to do a better job of taking care of the ball than he did against USC, but the team should be rested and ready to go after a week’s rest. Bet amount: 1 unit.
*Degenerate Little Birdie’s Bonus Bet: South Carolina Gamecocks at Georgia Bulldogs over 48 points
The bird thinks the UGA offense will keep humming along regardless of who’s at quarterback after Stetson Bennett put up an insanely efficient stat line against UAB. Georgia still has the oddsmakers going low on them from the minimal output against Clemson and the birdie thinks a garbage-time touchdown by UGA’s backups or South Carolina covers the over here.
6 Bets to Avoid
1. Boston College Eagles -15.5 at Temple Owls
Quarterback Phil Jurkovec is likely out for the season after suffering a hand injury. Boston College is stout on defense and shouldn’t have a problem covering, but until I see what they look like without their starting quarterback I’m staying away.
2. New Mexico Lobos at Texas A&M Aggies -28.5
Keeping with the trend, Aggies’ quarterback Haynes King has a “crack” in his leg sidelining him for multiple weeks. The offense was anemic at best the rest of the day against Colorado scoring only 10 points. Zach Calzada will likely be better with a week of preparation and the defense is fantastic but again staying away for the time being.
3. USC Trojans -8.5 at Washington State Cougars
Moving from quarterbacks to a coach. USC seems to have away about them when it comes to dramatically firing a coach. Clay Helton was canned after losing at home to Stanford by two touchdowns. Sad situation for a Trojans team that should have competed for a Pac-12 championship.
4. Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Ohio State Buckeyes -27.5
This game is going to sit in this section purely because I don’t want to spend 60 minutes sweating a Buckeyes cover. They lost at home to Oregon a week ago and flirted with the spread in Week 1. I’ll watch from afar as CJ Stroud and his weapons likely win by 30+ over a Tulsa team that lost to an FCS opponent in their opener.
5. Auburn Tigers at Penn State Nittany Lions -6.5
Auburn’s strength of schedule per Sagarin is 231st in the country. There are 129 FBS college football teams. It’s safe to say we know nothing about how Auburn will fare against their remaining schedule. Penn State won at Wisconsin in a game that felt like Wisconsin controlled for the most part. We’ll see how Bryan Harsin does in a hostile Happy Valley Saturday. I expect a low scoring affair.
6. Tulane Green Wave at Ole Miss Rebels over 76.5 points
I would love to know what the record is for most collective total points spreads for a team in a single season. Ole Miss probably holds it from a season ago and would probably be flirting with it this year. For the third straight week the Rebels total is in the 70’s. Tulane looked like a great offense in Week 1 at Oklahoma so it’s tempting to think about the over but it’s just so many points. I’m choosing to stay away.