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How Afghanistan Affects Bets on Biden to Finish Presidency

How Afghanistan Affects Bets on Biden to Finish Presidency

by Tanner KernAugust 19, 2021

So how does Afghanistan affects bets on Joe Biden to finish his presidency?

Bets have been placed on the prop, “Joe Biden to finish his presidency,” since he took the Oath of Office on January 20, 2020. Biden’s apparent mental instability has been a reason for bettors to take the risk that he will not finish his term.

The incumbent has not even completed a whole year, and there have been many red flags surrounding the leader. The activity over his first year in office is starting to cause his approval rating to take a massive hit.

Following the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, Biden’s approval rating has dropped to an all-time low. Nevertheless, this decline has not corresponded with a decline in the betting odds for the incumbent to finish his term.

Evacuation of Afghanistan

The United States recently pulled its final 2,500 troops out of Afghanistan, and the Taliban did not waste much time surging the nation. The United States military believed that it would take the insurgency one month to take the capital of Kabul.

However, this was extremely wrong as the insurgency claimed Kabul in under two weeks. There has been an intense evacuation effort, but many Americans are still stranded in the nation, along with international workers.

The Taliban takeover has caused a global economic hit, and Americans are pointing the finger at Biden along with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Biden’s Presidential Odds

The international criticism has not significantly impacted Biden’s chance of finishing his presidency. Finishing a presidential term is standard over the course of American history, so the fact that Biden has a 63% chance of staying in office is not significant. However, it has been stable for the past few months.

The way betting markets work is that lines are adjusted to even the sides, creating an inevitable win for bookmakers. If people started betting heavily in one direction, the odds would adjust accordingly so bookmakers could protect themselves from losing money.

The president’s approval rating has dropped to 44.5%, and it has now averaged 49.4% throughout his time in office. It’s hard to remove a sitting president, which could be why there has not been a drop in the betting markets.

Donald Trump survived two impeachments, and he was hated in Washington. Bill Clinton was not removed after having private meetings with Monica Lewinsky in the Oval Office, so unless Biden dies, it’s a safer bet for him to finish his term.

However, “scared money don’t make money,” so a slight risk could yield a HUGE return. 

Biden does not reflect a president that we have ever seen in the United States. A bet on Biden to not finish his term could yield a massive return if it hit. The question is, are you willing to take the chance?

Considering the incumbent has not served a year, a small stake with the current odds could be beneficial. As we know in betting, lines adjust rapidly, and you must be prepared. Afghanistan has not affected his odds to finish his term, but this situation is still unraveling.

Stay tuned on USA Wager for the latest presidential betting updates.

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About The Author
Tanner Kern
Tanner Kern is a former Division I football player at Lafayette College and a graduate of the University of Connecticut. He is a former writer for USA Wager and!