Early Season Midwest Team Trends
While individual team data is still pretty thin, we are seeing trends from the region. Taking samples from the Big 10 sans Maryland, Penn State and Rutgers along the MAC and Notre Dame it appears that Midwest teams are having a difficult time against the spread. There are some teams to key in on though as some trends are being established early.
The Big Ten teams are just 20-19 ATS this season despite playing a ton of home games. While covering the spread has proven difficult for some programs, Minnesota has had no trouble on the season against the number. The Gophers have covered in each of their four games and have beaten the spread by an average of +9.5 points per game.
Nebraska is the Big Ten team that you want to beat AGAINST so far this season. The Huskers are just 1-3 against the spread so far and are underperforming the spread by -6.4 points per game despite playing all four games at home.
As far as totals go, Iowa is perfect on the over this season at 4-0 while Ohio State is 3-1. If you are looking at unders, Indiana (3-0) and Michigan (3-1) are your kind of teams.
The MAC is sneakily good on paper for bettors this season. The top of the conference has been great against the number as Akron, Eastern Michigan, Miami (OH), Buffalo and Ohio are a combined 13-1 against the spread. The rest of the league which is comprised of Toledo, NIU, Central Michigan, Kent State, Western Michigan, Ball State and Bowling Green are a combined 3-14 ATS.
On the totals, the three MAC teams you want to target right now are Miami (OH) (3-0), Ohio (3-1) and Central Michigan (3-1). Miami and Ohio are successful because they are good offensive teams inside the top 75. Central Michigan’s totals are going over because they are currently 323rd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Akron Zips have only played two games on the season but are overperforming the spread by a crazy +21.5 points per game. Miami (OH) comes in second at +11.3 points per game.
Others Teams From the Region
The Kansas Jayhawks have hit the over in each of their first three games. Bill Self’s group is currently #4 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency but are allowing opponents to shoot nearly 35% from behind the arc.They are outperforming the total bye a foolish 12.8 points point game.
Oklahoma has gone over the total in three of their four games and are beating the number by 6.4 points per game.
From the Summit League, South Dakota State is 3-1 against the spread while their intrastate counterpart South Dakota is 0-3 against the number. The former is outperforming the spread by +5.1 points per game while the latter is underperforming the number by -12.2 points per contest.
Notre Dame is the last notable trend from the region though it is only two games the Irish are 0-2 against the number and have gone under in both games this season. Since the start of the 2020 season, the Irish are 50-50 on the total but just 11-17 against the spread. Even worse, they are just 3-7 ATS as the favorite.