Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Preview
Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Preview: The Saint Louis Cardinals (6-6) are looking to get back on track as the team lost four of its five games. The Philadelphia Phillies (6-6) had an extra day off as the game against the New York Mets was postponed due to rain. The Phillies ended the road trip five of the six games.
The Cardinals have been off to a slow start after having high expectations come into the season especially in the supposedly weaker NL Central. On the other hand, the Phillies were essentially dominated by the Mets this week and look to bounce back in a strong way against the Cardinals.
SAINT LOUIS CARDINALS PREVIEW
Carlos Martinez will be on the mound for the Cardinals as he will be looking to bounce back after a rough start to the season as he has given up seven earned runs in 10.0 innings pitched. Martinez just moved back to being a starter this season and needs to bounce back in a strong way to remain in the starting rotation.
Martinez barely pitched in the shortened 2020 season due to a shoulder injury which deterred him from building up his strength to go deep in games or just healthy in general. In 2019, Martinez pitched out of the pen and became the primary closer when Jordan Hicks went down that season. Historically, Carlos Martinez has been very solid on the mound. In the 2019 season, he was better against right-handed batters.
Right-handed hitters hit a .208 average with a .247 wOBA in 27.2 innings. On the other hand, left-handed batters hit .237 with a .345 wOBA in 20.2 innings. His xFIP has been around 3-4 and his ERA has never been high. His most effective pitches were his slider as it led to a 138 wOBA.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES PREVIEW
On the opposite side of the mound, Zach Eflin will be pitching for the Phillies. Eflin started the season well against the Atlanta Braves by giving up 1 earned run and four hits in his season debut. The second outing was a bit different as he gave up four earned runs and seven hits in the second game against the Braves.
The Phillies starting rotation is not their strongest asset but Eflin is the better of the squad as he has been a reliable starter over the years. In the shortened 2020 season he took the necessary steps to improve his game by using his best pitch in his arsenal a lot more which is his sinkerball.
His 3.97 ERA may not be as good as many think but a deeper understanding of his stats shows that he is a very effective pitcher. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Run Average is a stat that uses both ERA and FIP but takes away numerous external factors like park adjustments, catcher framing, and the quality of the opponent.
According to that list, his DRA would be a 2.85. This would rank 6th in the MLB for pitchers who threw at least 50 innings. Right-handed Hitters hit a .250 average with a .275 wOBA in 33.0 innings. On the other hand, left-handed batters hit .279 with a .381 wOBA in 26.0 innings.
This year right-handed Hitters hit a .257 average with a .278 wOBA in 9.2 innings. The two biggest right-handers on the Cardinals roster are Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt.
Cardinals vs Phillies Pick
With all that being said, it is hard to lean aside in this matchup; however, it could be a low-scoring game. Take the under 9 at -130.
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