Taphorn’s Twelve Pack: NFL Week 3 Bets
- Week 2 Record: 4-2; +2.0 units.
- Year-to-date Record: 7-5; -1.0 unit
6 NFL Week 3 Bets I Like:
1. Carolina Panthers -8 at Houston Texans
Tyrod Taylor had the Texans leading against the Browns before suffering a hamstring injury that landed him on injured reserve. The Panthers knocked off the Saints last week after bringing Jameis Winston back down to Earth. Rookie quarterback Davis Mills against a young and hungry Panthers’ defense favors Carolina in a big way. Bet amount: 1 unit.
2. Arizona Cardinals -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Urban Meyer just compared the NFL to playing against Alabama each week to give some insight into how the first time NFL coach is faring. The Cardinals failed to cover a week ago but snuck by the Vikings on a missed field goal. The Jags defense is going to struggle to contain Kyler Murray and his group of weapons. Bet amount: 2 units.
3. Seattle Seahawks -1.5 at Minnesota Vikings
Let Russ Cook. But then stop the other team from storming back. The second part wasn’t followed up on during last week’s loss to the Titans in overtime. Wilson is off to a great start and the Vikings defense has struggled through two games. Bet amount: 1 unit.
4. New York Jets at Denver Broncos -10.5
A two-score line is a lot to cover, but the Broncos have looked great in their two games so far this year. Bill Belichick gave Zach Wilson his “Welcome to the NFL” moment a week ago forcing the rookie into four interceptions. Vic Fangio’s defense had a similar impact on Trevor Lawrence a week ago, and will likely make it back to back weeks. Bet amount: ½ unit.
5. Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans over 48
Tennessee has decided that games don’t need to start right at kickoff. Back-to-back slow starts for the Titans have caused the offense to have to play catch up. They get a wounded Colts team this week, but this matchup is going to go a long way in deciding the division champion. Bet amount: ½ unit.
6. Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys -3.5
Dallas threw the ball all over the field in Week 1 and completely shifted the game plan in Week 2 in their win over the Chargers. The defense has been opportunistic thus far a great improvement over a year ago. The Eagles lost two Brandon’s a week ago with key pieces on either side of the ball, Brooks and Graham, hitting the IR. Bet amount: 2 units.
6 NFL Week 3 Bets to Avoid:
1. Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns -7
The Justin Fields era is officially beginning, even if it may get paused in a few weeks when Andy Dalton comes back from injury. Fields should give the Bears another dimension offensively but rookie QB’s give the ball away. The Browns are a tough first test so I’m staying away.
2. Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers -3
Might need to list the Steelers players that aren’t on their injury report. Most notably TJ Watt and Ben Rothliesberger are banged up and not practicing this week. The Bengals looked better, but are they ready to take down Pittsburgh? Hold off right now.
3. New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots -2.5
The good (Week 1), the bad (Week 2), the ugly (Week 3?). What are we getting from Jameis Winston against Bill Belichick’s defense? Mac Jones has seemed overly conservative through two weeks taking what the defense gives him and Jameis showed flashes of his Tampa Bay form last week. Let’s just see how this plays out without skin in the game.
4. Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs -6.5
Patrick Mahomes’ undefeated record in the month of September was ruined last week in Baltimore’s come from behind win. The Chiefs defense is suspect right now and Lamar Jackson took advantage of that. If the Chargers can get out of their own way, Justin Herbert may find some success moving the ball and finding the end zone. Hoping this is the start of a budding rivalry between the two young quarterbacks.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 at Los Angeles Rams
Arguably the top two teams in the NFC right now, it’s hard to lean one way or the other. The best way to pressure Tom Brady is up the middle and the Rams have the greatest to ever do that with Aaron Donald. Let’s see how a possible NFC Championship game plays out.
6. Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers -3
The Niners have had the Packers number when healthy. The Green Bay defense hasn’t shown the improvements that many were hoping for this season and Kyle Shanahan is likely salivating at that thought. This one could be high scoring as the Packers looked to be back up to speed in Week 2.