A Sob Story: NFL Bad Beats Week 3
Another week of NFL games just means one thing, another week of NFL bad beats, and some poor person is sitting in their living room thinking he/she is just the unluckiest person in the world. Here are some games that got me this weekend.
The Dirty Birds do us dirty…again: Atlanta (-2.5)
Hopefully, after last week’s debacle of NFL bad beats, you learned your lesson about betting on the Dan Quinn led Falcons at any point of time in which they are the Dan Quinn led Falcons. After Atlanta became the only team in NFL history last weekend to score 39 points, commit zero turnovers and lose in NFL history, they were the favorite, at home, against the Chicago Bears.
Mitch Trubisky on the road, am I right? Actually, I am not, his numbers are pretty solid on the road thus far in his career.
Coming off a loss such as the one in Dallas you would think that Atlanta would come out fired up and that is what they did. Atlanta was up 16-0 at the break and 26-10 after three quarters. Then it happens, Matty Ice turns into Matty Thrice. Three consecutive three and outs, all followed by Chicago touchdowns behind the strong right arm of Nick Foles who replaced Trubisky in the third.
It was still 26-10 in favor of the Falcons until the 6:20 mark in the fourth! The final four possessions the Falcons had the ball lasted a total of 3:45. That is absolutely horrific.
The butt of the joke: Chiefs at Ravens O/U 54.5
I wrote a preview for this game and given the talent at the quarterback position the over seemed like an easy take. Last season, Mahomes threw for 374 and 3 scores while Lamar Jackson didn’t have a tremendous game and the total still hit 61 points.
I am not sure this was a bad beat or just bad luck but luck but in truth they are typically one in the same. This bad beat came down to a gaffe in the first quarter. Typically reliable Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker (94% career on extra points) missed an extra point in the first quarter after a Mahomes rushing touchdown (Chiefs fans probably loved that event) that made the score 6-3. Combine that with the fact that Lamar Jackson has one of the worst games of his career in terms of passing and you end up with a final score of 34-20.
I felt confident in my pick but these things happen. However, late Monday night Darren Rovell tweeted out that a bettor threw down $95,454 to win $84,776 that the over would hit. I am never that confident because another one of the NFL bad beats could always happen.
Get over it: Cincinnati at Philadelphia O/U 47
First of all, the fact that any NFL game can end in a tie is so ridiculous to me that I can’t even put it into words without being red with rage. This isn’t soccer. The NFL prides itself in being ahead of the curve in terms of using technology and being rid of archaic rules. Except in this case.
In a matchup of two teams that don’t play a ton of defense, this was an easy over for me. Even when the Eagles were driving at the end of the game, I felt pretty good about it. This is the Bengals we are talking about, however. Wentz gets in on a 7-yd run, the Eagles kick the extra point. Done deal. Overtime comes and these two times play tighter than a snare drum, combing for just 45 yards of offense and six punts. Game over.
Since 2012, 123 NFL games have gone to overtime, only nine of which have ended in a tie. That is good for just a shade over 7%. Of course, knowing that number is just insult to injury to yet another set of NFL bad beats.