Falcons vs Saints Prediction & NFL Odds for Week 1

Check out our free Saints vs Falcons prediction for the NFL week 1 game in Atlanta. See who USA Wager likes to win and cover the spread in this football game. And, get our insight into the best over-under point total bet.

Saints vs Falcons Prediction & NFL Odds for Week 1

On Sunday, September 11th, the New Orleans Saints travel to take on the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. This NFC South showdown has a kickoff time set for 1:00 PM ET, and will be televised on FOX.

The odds for this game opened with the Saints as the -3.5 point road favorite. The New Orleans Saints opened with a payout of -180 on the moneyline, compared to the current odds of -220. On the other side, Atlanta opened by getting 155 on the moneyline. Their current moneyline odds sit at 177.

Heading into Sunday’s game, New Orleans is a strong favorite to come away with the win. But, can Atlanta take advantage of playing at home and pull off the upset? Keep reading to USA Wager’s Saints vs Falcons prediction.

• Spread: NO -5.0 | ATL 5.0
• MoneyLine: NO -220 | ATL 177
• Total: 41.5

Saints vs Falcons Prediction: Spread

During the 2021-2022 regular season, the New Orleans Saints were just above .500 vs the spread, going 9-8-0. New Orleans went into 8 games as the betting favorite.

Even though the New Orleans Saints had an overall ATS record near the middle of the pack, they fared much better on the road, covering at a rate of 67.0%. New Orleans ended these games with a scoring differential of +0.75 points.

Last season, the Falcons were a below .500 team against the spread, finishing just 6-10-1. This performance came while entering a majority of their games as the betting underdog. Overall, the Atlanta Falcons were favored just 6 times.

Like their overall ATS record, taking Atlanta to cover the spread at home was a losing bet, as they covered at a rate of just 12.0%. In these games, Atlanta had a negative average scoring differential of -18.71 points.

Heading into the game, the New Orleans Saints are the betting favorite, with a spread sitting at -5.0. If looking to place a wager on the spread, it is recommended to take New Orleans to cover on the road. A key reason that the Saints will go on to cover the spread is that the offense has an excellent matchup vs an Atlanta defense that ranked 29th in points allowed per game (27.0). Even though last year’s team finished with a below average scoring offense, look for them to come up with enough points to cover the spread.

Free Spread Prediction: New Orleans Saints -5.0

Saints vs Falcons Prediction: Total

The New Orleans Saints come into this season off a 2021-2022 campaign in which they finished with an over-under mark of 7-10-0. This week’s betting line of 41.5, is similar to the average over-under line of last year’s team at 43.24 points. In total 13 of last season’s games had over-under lines set higher than this week’s number.

The Saints accounted for 52.0% of the overall scoring in the 2021-2022 season. This trend includes games that surpassed the over-under betting line, where New Orleans was responsible for 51.0% of the points. When playing on the road, the New Orleans Saints finished the season averaging 22.22 points per game, right in line with their season average of 21.4.

Last season, the Atlanta Falcons had an over-under record of 7-10-0. This week’s betting line of 41.5, is lower than last year’s average over-under of 46.68 points. Overall, 15 of their games had over-under lines set higher than this week’s figure (88.0%).

The Falcons accounted for less than half of the overall scoring in the 2021-2022 season at 41.0%. This trend includes games that surpassed the over-under betting line, where the Falcons were responsible for 48.0% of the points. Overall, the team’s defense gave up an average of 27.0 points per game, similar to their home figure of 25.75.

Heading into this week’s matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons, the over-under line is set at 41.5 points. If looking to place a wager on this line, it is recommended to take the under. Even though the Saints have a good matchup against an Atlanta defense ranked just 22nd in yards per play allowed, New Orleans does not have the offensive attack capable of fully taking advantage, as they were one of the lower-ranked teams in yards per play. Look for the Saints to struggle in the passing game, as they ranked 32nd in overall passing yards.

Free Total Prediction: Under 41.5

Check out this post for a full list of our weekly NFL predictions