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Dolphins vs Patriots Prediction & NFL Odds for Week 1

by USA WagerSeptember 7, 2022

Check out our free Patriots vs Dolphins prediction for the NFL week 1 game in Miami Gardens. See who USA Wager likes to win and cover the spread in this football game. And, get our insight into the best over-under point total bet.

Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction & NFL Odds for Week 1

On Sunday, September 11th, the New England Patriots travel to take on the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. This AFC East showdown has a kickoff time set for 1:00 PM ET, and will be televised on CBS.

The odds for this game opened with the Miami Dolphins as the -2.5 point road favorite. Miami opened with a payout of -144 on the moneyline compared to the current odds of -148. On the other side, the New England Patriots opened by getting 122 on the moneyline. Their current moneyline odds sit at 122.

Heading into Sunday’s game, the odds suggest this will be a close matchup, with Miami getting a slight edge on the spread. However, New England will head to Hard Rock Stadium looking to pull off a road upset. Keep reading to USA Wager’s Patriots vs Dolphins prediction.

Spread: NE 2.5 | MIA -2.5
MoneyLine: NE 122 | MIA -148
Total: 44.5

Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction: Spread

Last season, the Patriots covered the spread in over half of their games, putting together an ATS record of 10-7-0. The team’s strong performance vs the spread came while being favored in 12 of their games.

Similar to their overall performance vs the spread, the Patriots performed well on the road, covering 62.0% of their games away from home. In these games, New England had a negative average scoring differential of -0.25 points.

Last season, the Dolphins covered the spread in over half of their games, putting together an ATS record of 9-8-0. The team’s performance vs the spread came while being favored in 7 games.

Even though the Dolphins had an overall ATS record near the middle of the pack, they fared much better at home, covering at a rate of 56.0%. In these games, the Miami Dolphins had a positive average scoring differential of 6.67 points.

Leading into this week’s matchup between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins, we have New England covering the spread as the slight underdogs. On their way to covering, look for New England to have a big game on offense. Last year’s team ranked 6th in points per game, and will be facing a Miami defense that allowed an average of 21.9 points per contest.

Although New England has a tough matchup in the passing game, they should still find success through the air, as the team was one of the most efficient passing offenses in the 2021-2022 season.

Free Spread Prediction: New England Patriots 2.5

Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction: Total

Last season, New England had an over-under record of 9-8-0. This week’s betting line of 44.5 is similar to the average over-under line of last year’s team at 44.21 points. Looking back to last year, 65.0% of their games had over-under lines set lower than this week’s number.

New England accounted for 60.0% of the overall scoring in the 2021-2022 season. This trend includes games that surpassed the over-under betting line, where New England was responsible for 62.0% of the points.

When playing on the road, the New England Patriots finished the season averaging 22.62 points per game, a decrease from their season average of 27.2. Overall, the team’s defense gave up an average of 17.82 points per game, slightly worse than their road figure of 16.0.

Last season, Miami had an over-under record of 7-10-0. This week’s betting line of 44.5, is similar to the average over-under line of last year’s team at 43.94 points. Overall, 8 of their games had over-under lines set higher than this week’s figure (47.0%).

The Dolphins accounted for less than half of the overall scoring in the 2021-2022 season at 48.0%. This trend includes games that surpassed the over-under betting line, where the Miami Dolphins were responsible for 49.0% of the points.

When playing at home, the Miami Dolphins finished the season averaging 22.33 points per game, a slight increase over their season average of 20.1. Overall, the team’s defense gave up an average of 21.94 points per game, similar to their home figure of 19.78.

Heading into this week’s matchup between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins, the over under line is set at 44.5 points. If looking to place a wager on this line, it is recommended to take the under. One reason that this should be a lower scoring game than expected is that Miami’s offense figures to struggle to move the ball. Last year, the team ranked 26th in yards per play and will face a Patriots defense that allowed an average of 310.8 yards per game.

This week, look for Miami to struggle in the run game, as they ranked just 30th in total rush yards last year.