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Commanders vs Jaguars Prediction & NFL Odds for Week 1

by USA WagerSeptember 7, 2022

Check out our free Jaguars vs Commanders prediction for the NFL week 1 game in Landover. See who USA Wager likes to win and cover the spread in this football game. And, get our insight into the best over-under point total bet.

Jaguars vs Commanders Prediction & NFL Odds for Week 1

On Sunday, September 11th, the Jacksonville Jaguars travel to take on the Washington Football Team at FedEx Field. This Non-Conference matchup is set to kickoff at 1:00 PM ET, and will be televised on FOX.

The odds for this game opened with the Commanders as the -3.5 point road favorite. Washington opened with a payout of -196 on the moneyline compared to the current odds of -200. On the other side, Jacksonville opened by getting 164 on the moneyline. Their current moneyline odds sit at 164.

Heading into Sunday’s game, Washington is the odds on favorite to come away with the win. Will they be able to take care of business at home? Or, does Jacksonville have what it takes to make things interesting? Keep reading to USA Wager’s Jaguars vs Commanders prediction.

Spread: JAX 4.0 | WAS -4.0
MoneyLine: JAX 164 | WAS -200
Total: 44.5

Jaguars vs Commanders Prediction: Spread

During the 2021-2022 regular season, Jacksonville struggled against the spread, finishing with an ATS record of 5-12-0. This performance came while entering a majority of their games as the betting underdog. Overall, Jacksonville was favored just 2 times.

Similar to their overall record, Jacksonville struggled to cover the spread on the road, going just 2-6-0. In these games, the Jaguars had a negative average scoring differential of -12.82 points.

Last season, Washington was a below .500 team against the spread, finishing just 7-9-1. This performance came while entering a majority of their games as the betting underdog. Overall, the Commanders were favored just 4 times.

Like their overall ATS record, taking the Commanders to cover the spread at home was a losing bet, as they covered at a rate of just 38.0%. In these games, Washington had a positive average scoring differential of 8.0 points.

Heading into the game, the Washington Commanders are the heavy favorite, with a spread sitting at -4.0. Look for Washington to take care of business at home, covering the spread. A key reason that the Commanders will go on to cover the spread is that the offense has an excellent matchup vs a Jacksonville defense that ranked 28th in points allowed per game (26.9).

Even though last year’s team finished with a below-average scoring offense, look for them to come up with enough points to cover the spread. Washington should find success through the passing game, as opposing quarterbacks put together a combined passer rating of 99.04 vs the Jacksonville defense (2021-2022).

Free Spread Prediction: Washington Football Team -4.0

Jaguars vs Commanders Prediction: Total

Last season, the Jaguars had an over-under record of 5-12-0. The over under line of 44.5, is right in line with the team’s 2021-2022 average of 45.56 points. Overall, 11 of their games had over-under lines set higher than this week’s figure.

Jacksonville accounted for less than half of the overall scoring in the 2021-2022 season at 36.0%. This trend includes games that surpassed the over-under betting line, where the Jaguars were responsible for 33.0% of the points.

When playing on the road, Jacksonville finished the season averaging 13.0 points per game, a slight decrease from their season average of 14.9. Overall, the team’s defense had their problems on the road, where they allowed 31.0 points per game, compared to their overall figure of 26.88.

Last season, the Commanders had an over-under record of 7-10-0. This week’s betting line of 44.5 is similar to the average over-under line of last year’s team at 45.5 points. Overall, 12 of their games had over-under lines set higher than this week’s figure (71.0%).

Washington accounted for less than half of the overall scoring in the 2021-2022 season at 44.0%. This trend includes games that surpassed the over-under betting line, where the Washington Football Team was responsible for 41.0% of the points.

When playing at home, the Commanders finished the season averaging 20.38 points per game, right in line with their season average of 19.7. Overall, the team’s defense gave up an average of 25.53 points per game, similar to their home figure of 24.25.

In this week’s matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Football Team, look for the two teams to surpass the over-under betting line of 44.5 points. Throughout the game, expect the Commanders to move the ball on the ground, as they will be facing off against a Washington defense that ranked 23rd in rush yards allowed. On average opposing team’s ran for 125.1 yards per game vs the Jaguars.