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Colts vs Texans Prediction & NFL Odds for Week 1

by USA WagerSeptember 7, 2022

Check out our free Colts vs Texans prediction for the NFL week 1 game in Houston. See who USA Wager likes to win and cover the spread in this football game. And, get our insight into the best over-under point total bet.

Colts vs Texans Prediction & NFL Odds for Week 1

On Sunday, September 11th, the Indianapolis Colts travel to take on the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. This AFC South showdown has a kickoff time set for 1:00 PM ET, and will be televised on CBS.

The odds for this game opened with the Colts as the -7.5 point road favorite. Indianapolis opened with a payout of -370 on the moneyline, compared to the current odds of -380. On the other side, the Texans opened by getting 295 on the moneyline. Their current moneyline odds sit at 293.

Heading into Sunday’s game, Indianapolis is a strong favorite to come away with the win. But, can Houston take advantage of playing at home and pull off the upset? Keep reading to USA Wager’s Colts vs Texans prediction.

Spread: IND -8.0 | HOU 8.0
MoneyLine: IND -380 | HOU 293
Total: 44.0

Colts vs Texans Prediction: Spread

During the 2021-2022 regular season, the Indianapolis Colts finished with an ATS record 10-7-0. Indianapolis went into 8 games as the betting favorite.

In addition to their overall ATS success, they covered road games at a rate of 75.0%. Indianapolis ended these games with a scoring differential of +10.33 points.

Last season, the Texans were a below .500 team against the spread, finishing just 8-9-0. The team’s performance vs the spread came while being favored in 1 game.

Similar to their overall ATS record, betting the Houston Texans at home, provided mixed results as they covered at a rate of 56.0%. In these games, the Texans had a negative average scoring differential of -15.33 points.

Heading into the game, the Indianapolis Colts are the heavy favorite to pick up the win. Even with the large spread, look for Indianapolis to cover on the road.

On their way to covering, look for Indianapolis to have a big game on offense. Last year’s team ranked 10th in points per game, and will be facing a Houston defense that allowed an average of 26.6 points per contest.

Indianapolis should find success through the passing game, as opposing quarterbacks put together a combined passer rating of 92.41 vs the Texans defense (2021-2022).

Free Spread Prediction: Indianapolis Colts -8.0

Colts vs Texans Prediction: Total

Last season, Indianapolis had an over-under record of 8-9-0. The over under line of 44.0 is right in line with the team’s 2021-2022 average of 46.71 points. However, 82.0% of their contests had betting lines higher than this week’s figure.

Indianapolis accounted for 55.0% of the overall scoring in the 2021-2022 season. This trend includes games that surpassed the over-under betting line, where the Indianapolis Colts were responsible for over half of the points. When playing on the road, the Indianapolis Colts finished the season averaging 25.38 points per game, right in line with their season average of 26.5.

Overall, the team’s defense gave up an average of 21.47 points per game, slightly worse than their road figure of 18.5.

Last season, the Texans had an over-under record of 8-9-0. This week’s betting line of 44.0 is similar to the average over-under line of last year’s team at 44.35 points. Overall, 11 of their games had over-under lines set higher than this week’s figure (65.0%).

The Houston Texans accounted for less than half of the overall scoring in the 2021-2022 season at 38.0%. This trend includes games that surpassed the over-under betting line, where Houston was responsible for 49.0% of the points.

When playing at home, the Texans finished the season averaging 20.33 points per game, a jump up from their season average of 16.5. Overall, the team’s defense gave up an average of 26.59 points per game, similar to their home figure of 27.78.

Heading into this week’s matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans, the over under line is set at 44.0 points. If looking to place a wager on this line, it is recommended to take the under. Even though Houston will be facing off a below average Indianapolis rush defense, I don’t expect the Texans to take advantage, as they ranked just 32nd in total rushing yards (2021-2022).

Even though the Texans have a good matchup against a Indianapolis defense ranked just 23rd in yards per play allowed, Houston does not have the offensive attack capable of fully taking advantage, as they were one of the lower ranked team’s in yards per play.