Taphorn’s Twelve Pack: College Football Week Two
This write-up will feature twelve weekly betting lines (The Twelve Pack). Six bets I like will be broken up into half units, full units, and double units. The additional six lines will be lines to stay away from. Each week I’ll also feature a special bonus bet from the little degenerate birdie that whispers ideas in my ear.
- Week One Record: 3-3. +0 units
- Year to Date Record: 6-3. +3 units.
- Degenerate Little Birdie Record: 1-0
6 College Football Week Two Bets I Like
1. Kansas Jayhawks at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -25
Pro betting tip: Bet against Kansas. The Jayhawks got halfway to hitting their win total in week one but had to come from behind to beat FCS opponent South Dakota. Coastal Carolina must take advantage of their opportunities against power-five opponents and Jamey Chadwell’s team will show off at home. Bet amount: 1 unit.
2. Oregon Ducks at Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5
Kayvon Thibodeaux injured his ankle in the first quarter of Oregon’s opening game and that will directly impact this game. CJ Stroud looked uncomfortable when Minnesota was able to pressure him, but when he had time, he was able to link up with his All-American wide receivers for explosive plays. I don’t expect the Ducks to be able to keep up with Ohio State in Columbus. Bet amount: 1 unit
3. Rutgers Scarlett Knights -1.5 at Syracuse Orange
Rolling with the Scarlet Knights again after putting up 60 points in week one on Temple. Syracuse opened with a road win at Ohio but were marginally less impressive. Greg Schiano could have Rutgers out of the cellar in the Big Ten in just year two. Bet amount: ½ unit.
4. Iowa Hawkeyes at Iowa State Cyclones -4.5
This may seem backward given the two teams’ week one performances, but in 2020 the Cyclones bounced back from a week one loss to beat Oklahoma in week three. Both teams played well defensively in week one, but I trust Brock Purdy and Breece Hall to turn things around in this matchup. Bet amount: ½ unit.5. Texas Longhorns -6.5 at Arkansas Razorbacks
This line surprised me. Texas handled a good Louisiana team in a week one opener that could have easily given the Longhorns an opportunity to stumble while Arkansas struggled for most of the game with Rice. The Razorbacks have a brutal schedule this season and are a better team than what their record will reflect, but the Longhorns should be able to get past them by a touchdown. Bet amount: 2 units
6. Liberty Flames -4.5 at Troy Trojans
Both teams blew through their opening week matchups with ease, so not much to be gained there. Hugh Freeze and Malik Willis should have no problem scoring points all season. Liberty went 9-2 against the spread last season and should start this year off 2-0. Bet amount: 2 units.
*Degenerate Little Birdie’s Bonus Bet: NC State Wolfpack -2.5 at Mississippi State Bulldogs. The little birdie loves the Wolfpack. They paid off last week for him and Mississippi State struggled with Louisiana Tech. Let’s keep the ball rolling with one ACC team that had a decent opening weekend.
Six Bets to Avoid
1. Purdue Boilermakers -34.5 at UConn Huskies
I’m a firm believer in betting against UConn given their propensity for terrible football. Covering five touchdowns on the road is a big ask and I’m just not sure how UConn responds to Randy Edsall being out. It can’t be worse right?
2. UAB Blazers at Georgia Bulldogs -24.5
The Dawgs defense was incredible against Clemson, but the offense was nothing to write home about. Kirby Smart has commented that his team is dealing with a sizable COVID outbreak following the big win. Too many factors here to take the Dawgs and there could be a bit of a hangover following the bump in the rankings.
3. Appalachian State Mountaineers at Miami (FL) Hurricanes -8.5
Speaking of hangovers. The Hurricanes are probably feeling that way after their beat down by Alabama. Miami is likely better than their performance last weekend showed, but can they restore confidence in themselves right away will be a question.
4. Missouri Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats -5.5
I’m personally high on the Tigers this season, but they couldn’t cover against Central Michigan over the weekend at home with a plethora of self-inflicted mistakes. Kentucky has been solid on the defensive side of the ball under Stoops and should have a heck of a running game this year. I would lean towards the Wildcats at home in this one, but I want to see more of each team before I get a feel for them the rest of the year.
5. Washington Huskies at Michigan Wolverines -6.5
I really expected this line to be higher than it is given the differences in week one. Washington’s loss to FCS Montana at home was possibly the worst of any team this weekend. Michigan won big at home over Western Michigan but lost wide receiver Ronnie Bell for the season.
This game will test if Harbaugh finally has a quarterback he can trust as Jimmie Lake’s defense can still create problems. I lean Huskies here and would like it even more if they were getting the hook instead of giving it up.
6. Stanford Cardinal at USC Trojans -17.5
Another hook that would have tempted me if it were on the other side. USC looked pretty good against a solid San Jose State team while Stanford took a beating in Dallas at the hands of Kansas State. I like USC here, but the infamous Stanford upset that seemed to start the end of USC’s dominance still lingers in my head.