Best NBA Over/Under Win Totals At All-Star Break
The NBA officially concludes its first half of the 2022-23 campaign Thursday night after the completion of the Los Angeles Clippers-Phoenix Suns matchup. The Association will break for six days for its annual All-Star break.
Before the season restarts on February 23, I decided to examine the best Over/Under. Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 14.
Cleveland Cavaliers Over 51.5 wins (+105)
I like the Over here. The Cavaliers need to go 14-8 over the final 22 games of the regular season. The Cavs project to pick up between 14-16 wins down the stretch.
Cleveland is playing its best basketball of the season. The Cavaliers have run off seven straight wins, averaging 115.6 points on 52.3% shooting from the field while outscoring their opponents by 16 points.
The Cavs are efficient offensively, thanks to their effectiveness around the rim, where they make 68% of their shots around the rim. They own one of the league’s top starting lineups and backcourts, with Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell leading the way. Power forward is also a strength, and Jarrett Allen is a top-10 center.
More importantly, Cleveland thrives on the defensive end. The Cavaliers rank No. 1 in defensive efficiency, eighth in defensive rebounding percentage and seventh in defensive rebound percentage. Adding Danny Green improves the Cavs’ depth at the three and four and gives them another threat from beyond the arc, as he is nearly a 40% shooter from long distance.
Philadelphia 76ers Over 51.5 (-140)
I liked the 76ers to go Over 50.5 wins at the beginning of the season, and the Sixers are 37-19. (.661). Therefore, they need to go just 15-11 or post a .579 winning percentage the rest of the way. So yeah, I will take Over all day.
Philadelphia has been very good at home and adequate on the road. More importantly, the 76ers have improved as the season has progressed and are 16-5 over their last 21 contests. MVP candidate Joel Embiid is playing the best basketball of his career, while James Harden has bounced back nicely from a disappointing previous season.
The Sixers didn’t do much before the trade deadline though the addition of Jalen McDaniels and Dewayne Dedmon solidifies their second unit. McDaniels is a significant upgrade over Matisse Thybulle offensively and in the rebounding department. Dedmon provides the 76ers with a reliable backup center, defensive rebounding, and rim protection.
Philadelphia won 100 of their 154 games over the first two years under Doc Rivers. The Sixers posted a 41-19 record after the all-star break in these two years, including 16-8 last season. The key to going over the win total will be Embiid remaining healthy.
Portland Trail Blazers Under 40.5 Wins (-110)
Go with the Under. The Trail Blazers are an average team at best and would have to go 13-11 the rest of the way.
Portland doesn’t defend or rebound well. The Trail Blazers also have one of the worst benches in the league and have three starters dealing with injuries — Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, and Jusuf Nurkic. While several Western Conference teams got better at the trade deadline, the Blazers got worse with the trade of versatile Josh Hart.