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Let’s Have A Fiesta, Shall We? Formula 1 Mexican Grand Prix Betting News and Notes
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Let’s Have A Fiesta, Shall We? Formula 1 Mexican Grand Prix Betting News and Notes

by JC PittmanOctober 29, 2022

Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, and Fernando Alonso are all in the fight for success at the Mexican Grand Prix. Read on for the betting news, notes, and insights to help you make successful picks for the Mexican Grand Prix.

Let’s Have A Fiesta, Shall We? Formula 1 Mexican Grand Prix Betting News and Notes

The new era of Formula 1 cars face a new test in Mexico City during the Mexican Grand Prix. Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez sits at 2,285 meters elevation (7496.7 feet), which challenges the new era of cars’ aerodynamic and power unit profiles: thinner air means less air for cooling the power units and breaks, less air for the turbochargers and internal combustion engines, and less air to generate downforce.

Historically, Red Bull has been strong at adapting their cars to the specific demands of the Mexican Grand Prix, and Honda/Red Bull Powertrains turbocharger seems to work better than the others at altitude. We’ll see the bigger, higher downforce aerodynamic packages to combat the altitude, which results in Monza speed levels in Mexico City.

We’re not going to deal with overturned penalties or Red Bull Cost Cap punishment news here. Instead, we’ll review everything we know so far to find the Formula 1 betting news and notes that matter to your betting picks for the Mexican Grand Prix.

Formula 1 Mexican Grand Prix Circuit Preview: Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez

One lap around the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez is 2.674 miles (4.304 kms), featuring seventeen turns and an 890-meter dash to turn one. The Mexican Grand Prix will take place over 71 laps for a total of 305.354 km.

According to fastestlaps.com, three-time Mexican Grand Prix winner Max Verstappen holds the all-time lap record setting a 1:14.76 in 2019, matching Daniel Ricciardo’s time from 2018. The current in-race fasted lap belongs to Valtteri Bottas, who set a 1:17.774 during the 2021 Mexican Grand Prix in the Mercedes W-12.

What Can Free Practice 1 Tell Us?

After Friday’s running, we have interesting results, and reliability concerns are among the issues that will cause problems on Sunday. First, we can throw out almost everything from Free Practice 2, as that session was dedicated to testing Pirelli prototype tires for next season. Second, we have a specific section of the track proving problematic for the drivers and the new era of cars.

Turns 7-11 at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez is a fast sequence of switchback turns where the drivers used to ride the curbs and fly through this section. This is where Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc both lost control during practice. Verstappen was able to keep his RB-18 out of the wall, while Leclerc’s F1-75 needs to be rebuilt after colliding with the wall.

If Leclerc’s red flag accident in FP2 is anything to learn from, it is that the 2022 Mexican Grand Prix will likely maintain and continue a trend. That trend is for the Mexican Grand Prix to produce either a safety car or a virtual safety car. While Red Bull has taken all World Championship prop bets off sportsbooks, you can and should take a prop bet on a Safety Car appearance at the Mexican Grand Prix.

Qualifying and Race Pace: A Seven Car Fight?

If we can learn anything from comparing lap times in Free Practice 1 for The Mexican Grand Prix about race pace or qualifying, we’ll potentially have up to seven drivers fighting for pole position. In fact, the top 6 driver lap times produced in FP1 were separated by 0.192 seconds. This list of drivers included the cast of characters you expect to contend at the front.

The Ferraris were 1-2 on the timing charts, with Sainz outpacing Leclerc by 0.046 seconds. The Red Bulls followed, with Verstappen, and our sentimental betting favorite, Sergio Perez, with 0.12 seconds behind the F1-75s, while Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton was 0.142 seconds behind the Ferraris. The Wiley ‘Ol Campaigner, Fernando Alonso, finished sixth 0.192 seconds behind the F1-75’s, meaning Alonso is a viable option for a top 10, top 6, and maybe even a podium if the chips fall in favor of Alonso on Sunday.

George Russell didn’t participate in FP1 but remains a threat to pole position and for an under-the-radar prop bet. Russell has finished in the top 10 points, scoring in 16 of 18 Grand Prix in 2022 and the top 6 in 15 races. Including Russell in this mix gives us seven cars competing for pole position on Saturday and the podium on Sunday.

We’re favoring Sergio Perez to win the Mexican Grand Prix, Red Bull to score a double podium, George Russell to land in the top 6 (again), and the safety car to make an appearance. The Formula 1 Mexican Grand Prix takes place at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico City, Mexico. Qualifying takes place on Saturday, October 29th, while it’s lights-out for the Mexican Grand Prix at 3 P.M. ET on Sunday, October 30th.

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About The Author
JC Pittman